They are not a statistical curiosity, but the perfect distillation or embodiment of the whole countrys sentiment. Marcela Stewart speaks to a voter at an event to encourage minority voter turnout n Cutler Bay, Fla., on Sunday. The second-most populous county in the state, northern Nevadas Washoe County is home to Reno. Watauga has gone for the winner statewide in each of the last three presidential elections and three Senate races since 2008. Ohio (18 electoral votes) - Lean Republican. This is a fairly small county, but we couldn't resist the toll of this bellwether. But county wins don't correlate with the popular vote, in part due to tremendousvariancein population size and density by county. "This process allows for the identification and correction of any mistakes or errors.". Other swing counties to watch: Monroe and Calhoun. Thank you for supporting our journalism. The Art Of The Vote: Who Designs The Ballots We Cast. Donald Trump is highly unlikely to win here -- Democrats have a big voter registration advantage in this county where Trump owns one of his many homes. If they are tipping to Clinton, it's over. Statewide results: 2012: Obama 52%-46% - 2008: Obama 55%-43%. A caveat: because its black population is higher than the state average (21 percent versus 13 percent), the county has gone narrowly for Democrats even in 2004 and 2000 when George W. Bush won the state. The popular vote is not enough to win apresidential election; thatonly occurs with awin in the Electoral College. 5. (You can make up your own mind on what the trends mean.). As such, the margins in bellwether counties became substantially more Republican even as the country only became a little more Republican, as you can see in the chart below. It voted twice for Bush and twice for Obama. A switch county is our name for a county that happens to vote for the winning party whenever there is a change of parties, ignoring how they voted for the incumbent. "Those are things that aren't just political, they become personal, after the election.". Much of the rest of the state is rural and ruby red Republican. Home to Tipton (population 3,199), Cedar has gone with the winner of every presidential and Senate race since 1992. Vigo County, Indiana, is a serious bellwether county. As with Valencia County, in the past bipartisanship wasn't unusual in Indiana's Vigo County. This website merely reports on substantial allegations made by well-known public figures, elected officials, members of congress, and their legal teams, and will correct errors when notified. The US Election Integrity Plan contains further news, analysis, videos and practical guides to getting involved. Bellwether counties are already extremely rare, but some bellwether counties are better than others at highlighting a change in sentiment. A bellwether county that includes Canton, its part of a heavily blue collar region where Trumps message could resonate. Unfortunately, Github (now a Microsoft company) terminated this website's account on 13 Jan 2021 for "spreading misinformation", a violation of their terms, although no specific examples were given. Some of the same messages that are going to work in Northeastern Ohio are maybe not going to work as well down here, said county GOP Chairman Alex Triantafilou. If youve done your research and found the 2020 results for each of these counties, you should find the results extremely puzzling. Or want to contribute to our open-source collection of articles and statistics? This fact check is available at IFCNs 2020 US Elections FactChat #Chatbot on WhatsApp. This county, home to Reno, borders California and is at the opposite end of the state from Las Vegas. Three-in-four votes for President Obama in 2012 came from Clark County. It went Republican in 2012; if Clinton is doing better or vice-versa there compared to Obama, it could be a sign of things to come. From 1980 through 2016, there were 19 counties that consistently voted for the eventual president. Statewide results: 2012: Romney 73%-25% - 2008: McCain 63%-34%. Green Bays Brown County voted for George W. Bush in 2000 and 2004, then Barack Obama in 2008, then flipped to Mitt Romney in 2012. While local Republican Party candidates enjoyed a bump in local media coverage for opening a new headquarters last summer, Democrats were facing vastly different circumstances. On Dec. 14, President-elect Joe Biden secured his victory after he received306 votes from the Electoral College, per USA TODAY. According to an analysis of bellwether states and counties by Dave Leip's Atlas of U.S. Presidential Elections, "Vigo County, Indiana is the most prominent bellwether of presidential. By Dasha Burns, Antonia Hylton, Shaquille Brewster and Benjy Sarlin. Democrats Woodrow Wilson, John F. Kennedy, Bill Clinton and Grover Cleveland (twice) won elections while losing ground in the House, per The Atlantic. There were 1.3 million voters, or a quarter of all the state's voters, in just eight counties in that stretch. Potential canaries in the coal mine, aside from Montgomery, include Wood, south of Toledo, and Stark, home to Canton and the pro-football Hall of Fame in northeastern Ohio. Click here, for more. All other 21 counties voted Republican. Experts say that while traditional bellwether counties are whiter and less educated than the national average, there's no one element that unites them as political oracles. Not a bad streak. The question is just how big of a margin she can run up here -- where roughly two-thirds of the states presidential votes were cast in 2012 -- to offset Trumps victories across much of the rest of the state. Bellwether counties are important, and their significance should not be downplayed. Co., as its sometimes referred to, has gone more closely for the statewide winner than any other big county. Website Updates Paused Only one of them, Washington state's Clallam County, backed. BBC Reality Check breaks down the bill for the world's most expensive election, Arriving at a voting station to observe as a poll challenger on 4 November last, she sat down next to two people she didn't know. In 132 years, no president has received more votes in his run for reelection and lost. Want to dive deeper? We have looked at every imaginable scenario to build a case for the Democrat party winning the 2020 election based upon how our trusted counties voted. [How Much Did COVID-19 Affect The 2020 Election?]. While Trump won every county in the state in the GOP primary, he posted his best result in Luzerne 77 percent. But its been a nail-biter in the past four presidential elections. The idea being these counties are good at sensing a change of sentiment and will happily vote for whichever party makes the most sense to them. Of their nineteen bellwethers, only Essex County, Vermont can be considered as a political competitive county. Lets find a coin, and flip it. If Clinton is getting in the mid-to-high 30s there, rather than the high 20s, she might have a shot at improving her statewide total enough to beat Trump and McMullin. (It will at least show a trend away from the Republican party that would help make more sense of this situation. It will keep them entertained for hours, and you can tell them it is for a good cause. In Valencia County, Mr Trump beat Mr Biden by six points more than he defeated Democratic Party candidate Hillary Clinton in 2016. 2016 primary winners: Clinton, Cruz2012: Obama 53%, Romney 46%, Latestvoter registration totals:Democrats: 101,967Republicans: 75,145Unaffiliated:65,344Libertarian: 1,022. Michigan (16 electoral votes) - Lean Democratic. Watch the margins in Story (Ames) and Scott (Davenport). With demographic change in the Research Triangle area, though, it's possible for Clinton to win without this smaller county. In total, Trump won 18 of the 19 former bellwether counties, winning the average such county by 13.7 points in 2020. 2023 ABC News Internet Ventures. It's another one of those white, college-educated areas that could prove key to this election. After 8 elections, the number of counties left standing defy the odds, and it is this fact that makes them bellwether counties. John King has identified as key in the 2016 election. Contributors wanted Latestvoter registration totals:Democrats: 521,881Republicans: 248,934Unaffiliated: 66,775Other: 45,567. Seriously. Trumps local ties notwithstanding, Clinton is likely to run up her numbers here in the northernmost part of the South Florida region. Will That Last?]. These counties were geographically clustered in the Midwest and in the Northeast. The statistics also are not indicative of electoral fraud. Again, youll appreciate the results when you dig some of them up yourself. Other counties to watch: Almost half of all of Obama's votes in 2012 came from just three places Milwaukee City, Milwaukee County and Dane (Madison, home to the University of Wisconsin). He will need to cut into Clintons advantage here in North Carolinas second-most populous county since Clinton is likely to roll up the score in Democratic Mecklenburg County (Charlotte). Now, Democrats have to drive up the margin in this populous, central North Carolina county. a suburban Philadelphia county that went for Hillary Clinton in 2016 with 52.6% of the vote, and that . The 2020 election appears to illustrate that the partisanship that's defined politics in Washington for years has now spread to small-town America. No county more closely reflected Obama's wins in 2008 and 2012 than Monroe, home to Key West and the rest of the Keys. Republicans have paid some attention. But there was only one county Clallam, Washington which voted Democrat. A surge in African-American turnout helped deliver Cincinnatis Hamilton County to Obama in 2008, making him the first Democratic presidential nominee since Lyndon Johnson to carry the population hub of southwest Ohio. Other counties to watch: Palm Beach and Miami-Dade are both places where Clinton has to drive up the score. The website will remain online for the foreseeable future, but may not get any significant updates until the situation changes. Republican county chairman Michael Barnett said hed celebrate if Trump could do better than Romneys 41 percent total here in 2012. Virginia (13 electoral votes) - Lean Democratic. Statewide results: 2012: Romney 53%-44% - 2008: McCain 54%-45%. Ventura County, California - two misses since 1920 (in 1976 and 2016). Demographics (84) Other counties to watch: Denver suburbs Adams, Arapahoe, Jefferson. Of these 35 counties, 10 of them consistently voted over 50% for the winning candidate since the year 2000. Those places will get the bulk of the presidential candidates time and their surrounding media markets will get the bulk of the television ad spending. In 2008, Obama received69,498,516 votes, per the Federal Election Commission. Lake County is a perpetual nail-biter. "We call them bellwethers because there's some fluke statistic, sometimes they are the right mix of different demographics. After you have spent an hour trying, record the maximum streak length you achieved. Hamilton is ringed by heavily Republican Butler, Warren and Clermont counties, and it shares a border with Indiana, which is giving hope to GOP officials who think Trumps running mate, Indiana Gov. New Hampshire (4 electoral votes) - Lean Democratic. In fact, a national coalition of election security officials described the general election as "the most secure in American history," per USA TODAY. We wanted to provide an easy-to-use guide of which counties to keep tabs on that could tell you how states might vote that are crucial to the election. In other words, only 54 percent of bellwether counties from 1980 to 2012 kept their status in 2016. Here are the counties that consistently voted more than 50% for the winning party since the 2000 election: To make things a little more interesting we will relax the constraints a little to include modern bellwether counties, that is, counties that have voted for the winning candidate since 1992. Furthermore, consider the fact that bellwethers dont just have a random 50% chance at winning we should expect them to have a better than 50% chance of getting it right. In Valencia County, Mr Trump beat Mr Biden by six points more than he defeated Democratic Party candidate Hillary Clinton in 2016. So the question is, how many of them switched back to the Democrat party in 2020? 7. The divisions were everywhere. The Atlantic wonders why we're still arguing about masks. 4. (Go to the bottom of the page. Texas (38 electoral votes) - Likely Republican, Bellwether: Tarrant (Ft. Worth, Arlington). It went with the exact margin for Romney in 2012 statewide and McCain statewide in 2008. Demographically, the bellwether counties tended to be whiter, older, less . The percentage of people with college degrees here is two-thirds higher than the rest of the state. November 8, 2016 9:29 AM ET. That is 19 counties still standing after 10 elections! It almost became religious.". Watauga has gone for. We highlighted the counties that voted the highest for the Democrat party in 2008 as it is a clear indicator of their propensity to vote for the Democrat party. Statewide results: 2012: Romney 51%-49% - 2008: Obama 50%-49%. Re-doing the analysis we obtain 35 modern bellwether counties after the 2016 election. But theres a blue collar contingent too who feel like theyre being ignored, according to county Democratic Chairman Marty Martinez. Trump, however, needs to drive up the score in Collin (Plano). In 1960, President John F. Kennedy lostall three states and won the White House, beating out future President Richard Nixon, according toSnopes. "It gave suburban moderates an opportunity to vent their anger at Trump directly at the top of the ticket but continue to vote for the down-ballot Republicans they liked," he said. That's 14 in a row. Other counties to watch: Also watch Luzerne (Wilkes-Barre). ), voted Democrat again in 2020? 2023 BBC. It is the only county to go twice for Bush and twice for Obama. And this is the state with the highest share of whites with college degrees in the country. We relaxed the constraint by introducing the concept of a swing county, i.e. If it is not demographically representative counties or politically competitive counties which are the bellwethers, why then do we find bellwethers? Obama won comfortably here in 2008 but only squeaked to victory four years later. It's the wrong question. And speak out if youve been a witness to election tampering. "These counties, they're not real representations of America," says Mr Kreisberg of BlueLabs Analytics. It has a slightly higher Hispanic population than Jefferson County 19 percent, according to the Census which makes it an uphill challenge for Donald Trump. According to PolitiFact, voter turnout was66.2% in 2020 and 61.6% in 2008. Situated on the southern shore of Lake Erie in Ohio, Ottawa County is one of America's most accurate bellwether counties - a region where voters correctly pick the president, election after election for decades at a time. If you'd like to assist or contribute in some way, learn how. With each new section we relaxed the constraint, to include the most friendly Democrat voting counties in the country (based on the 2008 election). Based on our research, the claim that these five statistics about Obama, Trump and Biden appear to discredit election results is MISSING CONTEXT. The key is going to be what kind of floor McMullin has statewide and Trump's ceiling. Of the 19 counties that had a perfect record between 1980 and 2016, all but one voted to reelect President Donald Trump, who lost to Joe Biden in both the national popular vote and in nearly. In the past, says Mrs Day-Baker, the presence of conservative Democrats and split-ticket voting - choosing a Republican nominee for president but Democratic Party candidates as local representatives, or vice versa - were both commonplace. (The highest value being again 66.1%). Multiple factors, including higher turnout and population growth, contributed to the fact that both Biden and Trump totaledmore votes than Obama. These key counties tell the story of America's shifting political landscape. To get an idea as to whether Clinton could win it, watch Tarrant County. The magnitude of the gap (or difference) is an indicator of the strength of the change in sentiment. A majority of voters here had backed the eventual winner of presidential elections every time since 1964. Here's why. Twitter Twitter Were doing a lot of adult retraining, he said. Published Nov. 8, 2016 at 5:30 a.m. The state's demographics suggest it could go blue one day. Ottawa County accurately predicted every president since 1964 until 2020, The Ottawa County commissioner says people are happy with Trump's accomplishments, Sunrise at East Harbor State Park, Ottawa County, Ohio, Minority voters who changed their minds about Trump, Chris Rock jokes about Oscars slap in Netflix show, Harry: I always felt different to rest of family, Everything Everywhere wins big ahead of Oscars, PM to end asylum claims from small boat arrivals, Street fighting in Bakhmut but Russia not in control, US-made cheese can be called 'gruyere' - court. But along with the states other urbanized counties, Forsyth has moved to the left, twice backing Barack Obama. Republicans Ulysses S. Grant and William Howard Taft won a majority of the presidential popular vote but lost a handful of seats in House, too. Election bellwether counties in the United States are counties that vote in alignment with the country as a whole in United States presidential elections, so that the county votes for the candidate who ultimately wins the election. Jeff. So, where are the bellwether counties? Other counties to watch: Perhaps no state more starkly displays the broader rural-urban divide in this country than Virginia. This article is part of a series on Identifying Electoral Fraud Using Trend Analysis. Since only Clallam County voted Democrat in 2020, we know they all voted for the Republican party in 2020 and got it wrong. The statistic on counties comes from a report bytheBrookings Institution on Nov. 10. Statewide results: 2012: Romney 53%-46% - 2008: McCain 52%-47%. Trump is making a hard play here; His first visit to Iowa after accepting the nomination at the Republican National Convention was in Scott County. "Democrats have really not done anything for the farmers They've totally ignored the rural community. Dave Wasserman, who analyzes election data for the nonpartisan Cook Political Report, told the Wall Street Journal that ticket-splitting appeared to make "a fashion comeback in many places.". Team up with others in your region, and help out by These are the bellwether counties. You have probably noticed by now that with each new section we write, we are relaxing the constraints to make it easier to build a case for the Democrats winning the 2020 election. Free and open-source. That means, watch Bucks and Northampton counties. The fact that there are fewer swing counties means that there are fewer potential bellwether counties. In other words, we are including more counties that are more likely to vote for the Democrat party. These counties' national bellwether status might not ring true in 2016, though, because Illinois is one of Obama's home states. The Trump era made us rethink a lot about politics and elections in America, including the counties that are useful barometers of the national political environment. 'Forest defenders' begin week of action to block Atlanta police training center, Frogxit: Harry and Meghan get what they asked for, More Iranian schoolgirls fall ill, protests erupt, Russell Brand was challenged to give examples of MSNBC pushing misinformation (that was a BAD idea), Secretary of the Army Guarantees a Lot of Young Soldiers Will Die but Has the Right Thoughts and Feelings, California - Do Not Sell My Personal Information. It's true that it is unusual for the party of thecandidate who wins the White House to lose seats in the House of Representatives. Kerry Sheridan/AFP/Getty Images Were not going to just give you the answer, since the significance of the result might be lost on you. But those states represent just 29, 18and six electoral votes, respectively. You can find the answer by searching politico.com/2020-election/results. But its also home to the largest concentration of registered Republicans in the state.
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